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If compared with a ‘new civil war’ scenario (consequential to the dissolution of the Afghan State and the Afghan National Security Forces and the victory for the Armed Opposition Groups), events during 2012 tend to suggest a 2013-2014 scenario characterised by: an increase of local level conflicts; a political and social instability of the Afghan state and an ANSF unpreparedness – partially counterbalanced by NATO’s effort and support. The end result in the medium term is that Afghanistan will be kept in a condition ofunstable ‘dynamic stalemate’.
• relatively unstable from a domestic political perspective and exposed to the risk of a reduction of the role of the central government (advantaging local and peripheral powers),
• seriously precarious regarding its security and governance,
• inadequate vis-à-vis the transparency required by the international community’s economical support agreements due to an endemic corruption,
• surrounded by a dynamic and flexible environment regarding regional cooperation.